Silver prices surged above $40 an ounce on Monday for the first time in more than a decade, fueled by mounting bets that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates this month.

Spot silver rose 2.04% to $40.55, its highest since September 2011, before easing back to $41.34 on Thursday, down 1.7%.

Analysts attributed the latest rally to reduced liquidity during the US bank holiday, which bolstered safe-haven metals like gold and silver. Expectations of Fed rate cuts and a tight supply backdrop further supported the move.

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, said: “Silver has broken above $40 an ounce to its highest in 14 years, extending a rally that has already delivered 37.5% gains this year. By comparison, gold is up 31% in the same period, but silver’s outperformance reflects its dual role as both an investment asset and an industrial metal.”

Hansen noted the surge is not the start of a new trend but part of an ongoing rally since 2022, underpinned by the same macroeconomic forces lifting gold. He pointed to heightened expectations of rate cuts, Trump’s tariff policies that risk dampening growth while keeping inflation elevated, concerns about Fed independence, and rising geopolitical risks.

He added that silver’s relative cheapness compared to gold gave it extra momentum, with the gold-to-silver ratio near 85, above the five-year average of 82. While gold needs new record highs to extend its rally, silver still trades below its 2011 peak near $50, leaving scope for further investor demand.

Industrial Demand Stays Strong

Hansen emphasized silver’s unique industrial underpinning: “Silver shares the same macro drivers as gold—dollar, real yields, rate sensitivity—but also benefits from robust industrial demand, especially in solar and electrification.”

Forecasts suggest another notable supply deficit this year, albeit smaller than 2024. Structural shortages have repeatedly limited downside corrections even during periods of dollar strength or reduced easing expectations.

After breaking through resistance near $35 in June, silver has tended to find buyers on dips, with volatility higher than gold due to its hybrid role.

The rally coincided with gold hitting a four-month high at $3,483.59 on Monday, up 1.03%. Unlike gold, however, silver’s demand is split almost evenly between investment and industry, giving it two growth engines. Photovoltaics alone account for about 20% of global demand. Jewelry demand could ease if prices remain elevated, but ETF inflows remain robust, with holdings at their highest in three years.

Rate Cut Bets and Dollar Weakness Drive Precious Metals

Comments from San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly last Friday encouraged traders to overlook a stronger-than-expected core PCE reading, reinforcing bets on a 25-basis-point cut this month.

The dollar came under further pressure after a US appeals court ruled most of Trump’s tariffs illegal, sending gold to a four-month high and silver to a 14-year peak.

Fresh PCE inflation data showed a 0.2% monthly rise and 2.6% annual increase, broadly in line with expectations, keeping precious metals supported.

Shifts in Global Silver Market Dynamics

Silver is increasingly seen as a hedge asset, drawing interest from institutional investors such as pension funds and mutual funds. This trend could underpin a long-term rally similar to gold’s trajectory.

The US remains the largest silver investment market, led by pension demand. India follows closely and may soon overtake, given last year’s record imports. Germany and Australia also remain key markets, with coins and bullion as the most popular forms.

Silver’s Road Toward Record Highs

The clear breakout above $40 has sparked speculation about revisiting the historic $50/oz level. While difficult to achieve this year, analysts say it cannot be ruled out.

Two key drivers will be Fed monetary policy and US trade tariffs. If the Fed eases policy while the government tightens tariffs, the twin forces could push silver closer to record highs. Technically, the next target is the 2011 peak at $44, with $50 in view longer term.

Short-term corrections remain possible, offering buying opportunities near $40 support, which also aligns with the uptrend line. A deeper pullback could test $37 support, a level that has held repeatedly in the past.

US stock indexes edged higher at the start of Thursday’s session following the release of fresh economic data.

According to ADP data published Thursday, the private sector added 54,000 jobs in August, below expectations of 75,000, after adding 104,000 jobs in July.

Meanwhile, Labor Department figures showed that initial jobless claims rose by 8,000 to 237,000 in the week ending August 30, the highest level since late June. Analysts had expected 230,000 claims.

Following the ADP report, CME Group’s FedWatch tool showed that the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut at the September meeting rose to 97.4%, up from 96.6% the previous day.

At 15:18 GMT, the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.1% (26 points) to 45,297, the S&P 500 gained 0.1% (3 points) to 6,451, while the Nasdaq Composite added 0.1% (11 points) to 21,511.

Copper prices fell on Thursday, pressured by a stronger US dollar and profit-taking after the metal climbed to a five-month high, ahead of key US employment data and amid uncertainty surrounding tariffs.

Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange declined by 0.6% to $9,917 per metric ton as of 09:45 GMT, after touching its strongest level since March 26 at $10,038 in the previous session.

This leaves copper with a gain of about 13% year-to-date.

Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank in Copenhagen, said: “It seems to be simply profit-taking ahead of these economic data. Also, the $10,000 level is currently a strong barrier for copper prices, while underlying fundamentals are not strong enough to break through it.”

US private payroll data and monthly job cuts are due later on Thursday, followed by the crucial nonfarm payrolls report on Friday, which will help shape expectations for the Federal Reserve’s upcoming policy meetings.

In China, the most-traded copper contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange slipped 0.5% to 79,770 yuan ($11,152.12) per ton.

Metals markets were also affected by a steady US dollar, which makes commodities priced in the greenback more expensive for holders of other currencies.

Market concerns were further fueled by uncertainty over demand in China, the world’s largest consumer of metals. Galaxy Futures noted that modest weakness in end-user demand could reflect a muted season in China, though widespread shutdowns of recycled copper rod plants have provided some support to prices.

China’s refined copper output is expected to post a rare monthly decline in September — the first for the period since 2016 — due to new tax regulations restricting scrap copper supply.

As for other base metals, aluminum lost 0.7% to $2,601 per ton, nickel fell 0.6% to $15,215, zinc declined 0.7% to $2,842, and tin eased 0.6% to $34,480, while lead was steady at $1,995.50.

The dollar index rose 0.2% to 98.3 by 15:02 GMT, after reaching as high as 98.4 and as low as 98.08.

On US trading, COMEX copper futures for December delivery dropped 1.2% to $4.57 per pound by 15:00 GMT.

Bitcoin price stabilized near the level of $110,800 at the time of writing on Thursday trading, after recovering slightly during this week. Traders are adopting a cautious approach ahead of important US economic data due on Friday, which may affect expectations regarding the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy, keeping cryptocurrency markets in a state of anticipation.

Meanwhile, spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (Spot Bitcoin ETFs) continued to attract strong inflows, recording more than $300 million of inflows on Wednesday, extending their positive streak for the second day in a row.

Traders await key economic data

Bitcoin price began the week on a slightly positive note, recovering modestly to stabilize around $110,500 on Thursday, after extending its downward trend for three consecutive weeks from its all-time high of $124,474.

US job openings (JOLTS) data released Wednesday showed a slowdown in the labor market, which strengthened bets that the Federal Reserve will cut borrowing costs later this month. According to CME FedWatch Tool, the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the conclusion of the two-day policy meeting ending on September 17 reached 97.6%.

Market participants also expect the Fed to implement at least two additional rate cuts by the end of 2025, which could support high-risk assets such as Bitcoin.

Traders are now focusing on US economic data due Thursday, including the ADP private employment report, weekly jobless claims, and the ISM services PMI. However, eyes will remain fixed on the nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report for August, scheduled for release on Friday at 12:30 GMT. This crucial economic data will provide clearer signals on the path of rate cuts and give the world’s largest cryptocurrency by market capitalization new momentum in its direction.

Institutional demand supports prices

Bitcoin price received institutional support this week. Data from SoSoValue showed spot Bitcoin ETFs posted new inflows of $301.32 million on Wednesday, after $332.76 million on Tuesday. If inflows continue and accelerate, BTC price may see further recovery.

According to the 2025 Global Crypto Adoption Index released earlier this week by Chainalysis, India, the United States, and Pakistan ranked in the top three, followed by Vietnam and Brazil.

The report noted that the Asia-Pacific region (APAC) led growth in on-chain crypto transactions, with a 69% year-on-year increase, driven mainly by India, Vietnam, and Pakistan, while Latin America came second with 63% growth.

It also confirmed that Bitcoin remains the main gateway to the crypto economy, attracting more than $4.6 trillion in cash inflows (from fiat currencies) between July 2024 and June 2025 — double the inflows captured by other Layer 1 coins excluding Bitcoin and Ethereum.

Companies allocate 22% of profits to Bitcoin

Financial services company River published a research report this week showing that many companies allocate far more than the default 1% of funds to Bitcoin. A survey conducted by the company in July 2025 revealed that companies using its services invest an average of 22% of net income in Bitcoin, while the median investment was 10%, reflecting the accelerating pace of adoption at the business level.

The report showed that 63.6% of these companies view Bitcoin as a long-term investment and continue to accumulate it without plans to sell or rebalance in the foreseeable future.

Technical outlook: Signs of fading negative momentum

Bitcoin price recovered slightly on Monday after a correction of nearly 5% in the previous week. It closed above its 100-day exponential moving average (EMA-100) at $110,736 on Tuesday and found support above it the following day. At the time of writing on Thursday, it was moving near this average around $110,800.

If Bitcoin continues its recovery, the rally could extend toward the daily resistance level at $116,000.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) on the daily chart showed a reading of 44, just below the neutral level of 50, indicating fading negative momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD lines are converging with shrinking red bars on the histogram, suggesting a possible bullish crossover soon.